Let's for a moment, put on our speculation hat. However, let's be honest - we're never going to know the complete details, and even if we're given details, they will not all be true.
However, we now know that we had been tracking bin Laden's courier from the compound since August of 2010. We also know that his operation zone was that of Abbottabad and Peshawar.
After tracking him to the compound, the final conclusion that this mansion contained bin Laden was made in mid-February of 2011. In mid-March (the 14th), the planning for the operation begun.
Meanwhile, we know that Raymond Allen Davis worked as a CIA contractor for some time in Pakistan. When he was arrested for killing two men in Lahore, we didn't know much about what he was doing, or even who he was. It makes sense that we'd say a CIA man was a diplomat -- that's standard operating procedure -- but paying $2 million dollars in blood money, publicly, to wipe this under the rug?
We didn't even attempt to hide that we were doing so.
The story of the Davis incident reads like a Flynn novel. He claims he was being robbed, but that's clearly BS. Especially considering that he calmly got out, called for help, and took photos of the men he killed.
Meanwhile, a rescue team was tearing after him and threatening to shoot anyone who got in their way. If the words "high value intelligence" didn't come across your brain, well, they should've.
Like many spies, he entered Pakistan on a diplomatic passport, and served for a time in Peshawar before moving to Lahore, where he lived in a large house in an upmarket neighbourhood.
He got his first visa in 2009, and most recently entered the country on 20 January.
When he was arrested a week later, Davis was carrying a 9mm gun and 75 bullets, bolt cutters, a GPS unit, an infrared light, telescope, a digital camera, an air ticket, two mobile phones and a blank cheque.
We later find out that in that GPS unit, locations were logged in Peshawar recently before his capture.
Let us look at the timeline:
- Unknown 2009: Davis receives his visa, served for a time in Peshawar.
- August 2010: Courier tracked to Abbottabad, operates between it and Peshawar.
- January 20th, 2011: Davis returns to Pakistan.
- Unknown, January 2011: Davis is alleged to have been to Peshawar, according to reports of info gleaned from his GPS.
- January 27th, 2011: Davis is in a shooting gallery in Lahore, his base of operations. CIA goes Bourne Identity in Lahore trying to get to him, can't.
- Mid-February, 2011: US makes final conclusion that Bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad, and they're got eyes on his compound.
- March 14th, 2011: President convenes meetings to begin the planning of storming Bin Laden's hideout.
- March 16th, 2011: Announced that divya has been paid to the families of those killed by Davis; Davis released.
- May 1st, 2011: Navy SEAL Team Six, with "CIA paramilitary" operatives present, storms the compound. Bin Laden is killed.
Does the Davis timeline have anything to do with Bin Laden? We will probably never know. But it would be silly of us to think that he couldn't possibly have been one of the people who had acquired actionable intelligence confirming Osama's occupation of the Abbottabad compound.